Liupanshui settlement observation point settlement observation mark National shipment galvanized L-shaped settlement observation point mark

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　　Liupanshui settlement observation point settlement observation mark National shipment galvanized L-shaped settlement observation point mark

　　At present, the situation of "weak in the north and strong in the south" in the construction steel market is becoming increasingly prominent, and the prices of construction steel are also showing a characteristic of "high in the south and low in the north". Therefore, as the demand for construction steel in the northern region gradually weakens, resources from the north will accelerate their flow towards the south. According to research, the resource plan for rebar from northern steel companies to move south in December this year reached about 1.9 million tons, which is basically the same as the same period last year; The resource plan for the southward transportation of snail and wire rods is expected to reach around 760000 tons, an increase of approximately 20000 tons year-on-year. This batch of northern resources heading south will have an impact on the supply of construction steel in the southern market. The second is the process and scale of winter storage. According to research, the winter storage scale this year is roughly equivalent to last year, and the winter reserves may not exceed last year's. According to steel traders, this year's market participants are mostly rational about winter storage and do not see it as an opportunity to boost the market. This largely determines that the scale of winter storage this year will not be too large. Steel traders believe that this year's winter storage will have limited impact on the later market situation of construction steel.The third uncertainty is whether the market's "weak supply and demand" pattern will change. With the increasing impact of cold weather in various regions, the intensity of "steel demand" will also become weaker, and it is difficult to significantly improve the weak terminal effective demand intensity in the construction steel market. Moreover, many steel companies are currently undergoing year-end maintenance. According to incomplete statistics, nearly 40 steel companies released maintenance plans in November alone. Some steel companies have decided to conduct a 16 day year-end maintenance on a 2600 cubic meter blast furnace from December 9th to December 24th this year, which is expected to affect the daily output of molten iron by about 6300 tons; Some steel companies' high-speed production lines have been shut down for maintenance since November 29th this year, and the resumption time is yet to be determined. Steel traders expect that the production of construction steel will be "easy to reduce but difficult to increase" in the near future. At present, the inventory of construction steel market continues to decline. As of December 17th, the total inventory of rebar in 35 major markets across the country was 3.6414 million tons, a decrease of 271600 tons or 6.94% compared to the previous week; The total inventory of wire rods and spiral coils was 1108900 tons, with a decrease of 107200 tons or 9.67% in the circumference to circumference ratio. Steel traders predict that although the recent weak supply pattern in the construction steel market is difficult to change, there is uncertainty in the release of downstream demand. Fourthly, the macroeconomic policy effects such as reserve requirement ratio cuts are gradually emerging, which is conducive to the stabilization and strengthening of the construction steel market prices in the later stage. In order to support the development of the real economy and promote a steady decrease in comprehensive costs, the central bank has decided to lower the reserve requirement ratio for institutional deposits by 0.5 percentage points on December 15, 2021. After this reduction, the weighted average reserve requirement ratio for institutions is 8.4%. This reserve requirement ratio cut has released a total of about 1.2 trillion yuan in long-term funds. Industry insiders believe that this downgrade will effectively increase the long-term stable funding sources for institutional support to the real economy, promote the development of the real economy, and inject momentum into driving "steel demand". In addition, the driving effect of this reserve requirement ratio cut on "steel demand" is also reflected in the real estate industry. The recent meeting of the Central Political Bureau proposed to promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commodity housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of homebuyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry. This means that the "steel demand" of the real estate industry will also have some resilience in the later stage.

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