Guizhou observation standard observation nail L-shaped mushroom head leveling nail

Description :

　　In the long run, the control of crude steel production capacity will run through the entire 14th Five Year Plan period. The recently released "14th Five Year Plan for the Development of Raw Material Industry" clearly states that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the production capacity of key raw material products such as crude steel and cement will only decrease without increasing, and the utilization rate of production capacity will be maintained at a reasonable level. The author believes that this is conducive to achieving supply-demand balance after steel consumption reaches its peak and falls back. The year-on-year inventory of steel is still relatively low. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream construction sites are slowing down, and steel trading volume and apparent consumption have entered a downward channel, leading to an increase in steel inventory. From the end of December 2021 to the first week of January this year, both the inventory of rebar enterprises and social inventory increased, but it still decreased by about 1.25 million tons compared to last year, and the inventory pressure was not significant. In terms of total quantity, except for the impact in 2020, the time when steel inventory began to increase this year is 2 to 3 weeks later than from 2017 to 2019. By the end of December 2021, the weekly production of rebar had been below 2.8 million tons for 8 consecutive weeks and below 2.7 million tons for 2 consecutive weeks. Based on this calculation, by the end of February and early March this year, the total inventory level of rebar will still be lower than the same period last year. After the Spring Festival, when demand recovers, low inventory is more favorable for steel prices to rise. Profit is still expected to shrink. With the gradual resumption of blast furnace production in Tangshan, Hebei recently, the price of coke has started its first round of adjustment this year, and the gross profit per ton of steel may be compressed. At present, the immediate profit of rebar is 626 yuan/ton, and the immediate profit of hot-rolled coil is 551 yuan/ton. The overall gross profit level is moderate to high. Driven by weak demand reality, steel companies continuing to resume production, and raw material stocking and replenishment, there is still an expectation of profit contraction. Demand faces uncertain factors. In response to this year's peak season demand, although there is an expectation of infrastructure moving forward, there are still many uncertainties in the real estate sector. If the marginal relaxation of real estate continues to be reflected and the demand for infrastructure is released ahead of schedule, then demand will be rapidly released after this year's two sessions, and there will be a concentrated outbreak in the short term, which is expected to stage a strong spring market. But if the total amount of real estate continues to decline, the overall construction of infrastructure is slow, and demand is released less than expected, then steel prices will be under pressure. However, overall, the bottoming out effect of real estate policies is evident, and the market will experience a transition from policy bottoming out to fundamental bottoming out before and after the Spring Festival.

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