The price of 400-500 roadbed settlement plates for high-speed use in Heshan, Guangxi

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　　The price of 400-500 roadbed settlement plates for high-speed use in Heshan, Guangxi

　　According to Sheng Wenyu, the head of black series research at Jinxin Research Institute, the micro weekly data of steel in the past two weeks shows a slight improvement in the supply and demand margin. Although the apparent demand is still relatively low year-on-year, it is basically unchanged month on month. Due to losses and difficulties in raw material procurement, steel mills have experienced a sustained decline in steel production. Under the pattern of supply reduction and demand balance, inventory continues to approach the level of previous years. In addition, signs of improvement in real estate expectations are becoming increasingly evident, mainly reflected in the improvement of high-frequency sales in real estate, the rapid launch of a new round by some real estate enterprises, and the stabilization of real estate bond prices.

　　In fact, the output of the steel supply side has been continuously declining since July, partly due to the pressure of policy pressure on production, and partly due to the independent maintenance of steel mills' losses. Sheng Wenyu said that the immediate profits of steel mills have risen significantly due to the rapid collapse of raw material prices. It is expected that steel production will increase in December. There is basically no hope for terminal demand in the fourth quarter of this year, and we can only rely on the preferential winter storage policy of steel mills to stimulate traders to replenish their inventory. In terms of terminal demand, further policy support is needed. The importance of the real estate related industry chain to the economy is self-evident, and it is reasonable for various regulatory measures to be repaired after being overcorrected.

　　Jiang Qiuyu stated that from a fundamental perspective, the sustainability of the current rise in domestic steel prices needs to be verified. On the supply side, steel mills are expected to resume production in December. At the same time, due to the significant reduction in coke prices, the immediate profits of domestic steel mills have been restored, and profits will not limit the resumption of production by steel mills. On the demand side, the short-term demand for rebar will enter a seasonal consumption off-season, and the demand will gradually weaken. But the expected relaxation of real estate policies supports the prices of finished products in the distant months. It is expected that the rebound of finished products will be difficult to sustain, and prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level.

　　In Sheng Wenyu's view, the short-term sustainability of the steel rebound market is expected to be acceptable, with inventory gradually declining and scrap steel prices rebounding, which is expected to increase the cost of short process steelmaking. With the decrease in temperature, there is still room for steel prices to decline, and the profits of short processes will be squeezed in the short term. If the high energy consumption electricity prices in some provinces are raised again in December, the speed of short-term production cuts may exceed expectations.

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